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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.