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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.